The Future of Mac Reliability

I've been thinking a lot lately about Apple silicon and its implications for Macintosh reliability. Before the arrival of Apple silicon, a typical Mac logic board included a CPU, separate RAM, an Apple W2 or some other sort of secure enclave, chips to manage inputs and outputs, (often) a discrete video card, Apple's separate machine-learning chips, and a bunch more bits and pieces that all now exist as the single System on a Chip (SoC) that is Apple silicon. So does combining everything in one SoC make the Mac more or less reliable? A case could be made for both points. Without all the digital tethers needed to tie all those separate pieces together, Apple silicon should have less that can go wrong with it and be more reliable. On the flip side, if something does go wrong on Apple silicon, the machine is probably dead.

When trying to predict whether these new Apple silicon Macs will be more or less reliable, it is important to remember this is not Apple's first SoC rodeo. They've been making SoCs for the iPhone and the iPad for years.

A few days ago, I was on the telephone with an old friend, and he commented that his wife still loves the iPad I helped him set up about nine years ago. It is an iPad 2 and still working fine. I told him, "You should buy your wife an updated iPad. They have a good one for $329." He had me on speaker because then his wife chimed in, "I don't need a new iPad. This one still works like new." Her nine-year-old iPad running on an Apple SoC still runs "like new" after nearly a decade. I realize this is anecdotal, but looking at iPads in particular that have a bit more cooling (even if it is just a big aluminum heat sync) and don't get abused as hard as iPhones, I'm aware of a lot of very old iPads still in use.

Moreover, again anecdotally, I'm not aware of anyone I've spoken to who told me their iPad SoC failed. I know plenty of folks who broke the screen, but nobody who had the SoC fail them. Think about your friends and family circle. I suspect you've had the same experience.

I take this as a good sign for the new Mac SoC designs. The Mac SoC is a successor to those early iPad chips. Indeed, the new iPad Pros run on the current Mac SoC, the M1. If I were a betting man, I'd say that old running Macs are about to become much more common in the coming years. I sure hope so.

Assuming I'm right, the problem then becomes software. Even though my friend's wife still loved her iPad 2, I'm sure her operating system has to be years old. Apple is generally good about supporting old hardware with new software updates, but what will they do if it becomes common for Macs to run reliably for 10 or 12 years? There is just so much to this Apple silicon Mac transition that seems to be rewriting the rule book. Exciting, right?

Rumored New MacBook Air

Mark Gurman is back, this time with a rumored new MacBook Air design in the works for later this year or next year. The goal is thinner and lighter with a smaller bezel. The MacBook Air is already pretty thin and light, but it really isn’t that much lighter than the 13” MacBook Pro. (2.8 vs. 3.1 pounds).

Either way, it appears the Macintosh Renaissance is in full swing. If you are thinking about getting a new Mac, but in no particular hurry, I’d recommend waiting a year. I expect the entire line of options will be different a year from now.

Apple Silicon in 2021

In the last few days, we’ve had rumors from both Ming-Chi Kuo (via 9to5 Mac) and Mark Gurman concerning the planned Apple silicon Macs (hopefully) for 2021. It looks like lots of interesting Macs are on the horizon.


14” and 16” MacBook Pro
There are two new rumored MacBooks Pro. The 14” design to replace the higher end 13” MacBook Pro has been rumored for years. These will likely get a souped-up version of the M1 with more cores and processing speed. It sounds like a new design and possibly a new screen technology. That part is expected. There are a few more tidbits I didn’t expect:

  • Demise of the Touch Bar. I’m actually starting to appreciate the Touch Bar. However, it may be going away with these new Macs.

  • New I/O. One rumor is that Apple will support additional connections. I find that one hard to believe. At best, I’d imagine an SD card slot, but we’ll find out soon enough.

  • There is also a rumored return of MagSafe for laptops. That would be amazing.

There are no rumors to this effect, but I would bet we’ll also get a second-tier Mac Mini (in a space gray case) with the same silicon as the new MacBooks Pro when they release.


iMac
The rumors are that we’ll get something similar to the look of the Pro Display XDR with a flat design on the front and back and removal, finally, of the iMac chin. It sounds like there will be two sizes, but they may both be bigger than this generation’s iMacs. It also isn’t clear whether these iMacs will get different Apple silicon than the iMacs Pro or not. There is also a rumored external monitor that will be more affordable than the Pro Display XDR.

This isn’t in the rumors, but I’d speculate that there will be two performance levels of the big new iMac, and the iMac Pro will go away.


Mac Pro
The prevailing rumors on this are that the existing Mac Pro will continue for the meantime to support Intel and the third-party ecosystem and peripherals around Intel.

The interesting secondary rumor is that Apple will make a separate smaller Mac Pro that will have a design similar to the G4 Cube. That Cube had a bunch of problems, but it was also a thing of beauty. I remember visiting a friend and lusting after his G4 Cube back in the day. With Apple silicon and its low thermals, I think it would be easy to build one in a cube. It would be a great capper to this Mac renaissance for Apple to make a cube Mac Pro.

Either way, it looks like we are going to have a lot of great options available to us once all this rolls out. I know it is against Apple’s DNA to share details ahead of time, but I really wish they would provide a product roadmap on this stuff. Many folks need to plan for buying new Macs (and Apple will most certainly sell a lot of them in the next few years). If we knew generally what’s coming, it’d be a lot easier to make intelligent decisions.

Windows and Apple Silicon

Things are evolving quickly for folks who want to run Windows on the new Apple silicon Macs. Hackers figured it out first, but now Parallels has Windows for ARM support working in its version 16 preview. Granted, this is only for Windows for ARM (vs. Windows for x86), but I didn’t expect this to happen so fast.

It’s still unclear if Microsoft is interested in playing along and offering Windows for ARM for sale separate from Windows for ARM hardware. Does that make sense when the Apple silicon hardware is both faster and lasts longer than traditional ARM hardware? Is that screwing over all those other Microsoft partners?

A month ago, I would have said that official support for Windows on Apple silicon is a pipe dream. Now I’m not so sure.

The Next Apple Silicon

Now that the M1 Apple silicon Macs are sinking in, I have been thinking about what Apple will do next. A few weeks ago, Mark Gurman at Bloomberg shared a scoop that Apple is looking to get up to 32 cores in a Mac with Apple silicon and also putting the gas down on their own graphics processors with up to 128 cores.

I'm, frankly, processing just how fast this M1 MacBook is.

If I were in charge, however, what I'd like to see Apple do is the following:

  • M1 — The existing M1 turning mere MacBooks into screamers.

  • M1(B) — This is the chip for the MacBook Pro and iMac, improving the core compute and graphics power of the M1.

  • M1(C) — This is the chip for the iMac Pro and perhaps a high-end MacBook Pro, even faster.

Understand, this is if I was in charge. I would be a little surprised if Apple ends up releasing three iterations of the M1 , and shocked if there were four. But given how far down the trail the Bloomberg article says Apple already is, we may get more flavors of M1 (before it turns into M2) than we thought.

Another consideration is that just because Apple releases a new A-series chip every year, it doesn't mean they will do the same with the M-Series. They may have the M-Series on something more akin to a two-year cycle, giving them time to build iterations of the chip for the higher-end hardware.

Regardless, Mac enthusiasts have some exciting days ahead.

The Imminent M1

MacBook Air Ship Date.png

It took me a few hours to figure out what new MacBook I actually wanted and my initial ship date wasn’t until next week. Now it’s jumped up tomorrow and I’m tickled. It’s been a long time since I was so eager to get my hands on some new Apple hardware. I expect if units are shipping to folks tomorrow, we may also get the review drop, which should give us a lot more data about the differences between the various M1 Macs and further details. This week should be fun.

Thoughts on the One More Thing Event

So today, Apple announced its first Apple Silicon Macs. I have a few thoughts:

  • Wow! I had high expectations, but overall, Apple delivered with the new M1.

  • The M1 performance looks like a crazy leap forward. Generally, we’ll get 3X performance increases and 5X graphics improvements. That is completely nuts.

  • On all of these devices, Apple suddenly had all of this additional low watt/hour power. In each case, they chose to use it by giving the devices both more power and more battery. That isn’t a surprise. What is a surprise, to me at least, is how much power and additional battery life they were able to get.

  • Battery improvements are nuts. They gave many numbers, but it sounds like at least 6 hours of additional battery on both laptops.

  • There are two chip options available: 7 core and 8 core. I suspect that is simply a result of chip binning. When they didn’t get a full yield on a chip, they make that one of the less expensive ones.

  • My initial impression is that the scales just got tipped even more toward the MacBook Air in the Air vs. Pro question. The MacBook Air is so much more powerful and now fanless. You’ll need to justify going up to the Pro.

  • The M1 Mac mini was not in any of the rumors I read but makes sense. The Mac mini is now a mighty little computer.

  • There were no demos of running iPhone and iPad apps on the M1 Macs. Didn’t that seem weird?

  • Speaking of iOS, we didn’t get several of the iOS features I’d liked to have seen, like FaceID, cellular radios, and Touchscreen. But it is still early. I expect that may change with future hardware.

  • Did anybody else catch the bit with Ken Case playing the harp at 20:59?

  • You can order the new Macs today. Big Sur ships in two days. Buckle up, gang.

Overall, this change just gave the Mac a jolt of electricity. I fully expect the Mac hardware to also evolve in unexpected directions. I cannot wait to see how this all plays out over the next few years.


BBEdit 13.5

BBEdit.png

Yesterday Bare Bones released BBEdit, version 13.5. There is plenty to like in this new version:

  • Ready for Apple Silicon — If you get it from their website, it will be a universal build. If you are getting it from the Mac App Store, it is still Intel-only until Apple allows developers to start distributing Apple silicon builds through the Mac App Store.

  • Markdown Cheat Sheet — Just as they recently did with regular expressions, BBEdit also now has built-in tools to help you learn and implement Markdown.

  • Server Document Snapshots — If you are accessing documents on a server, now when you quit BBEdit, it will save a snapshot of server-based documents, so when you re-open it, things will go much faster. I spoke to Rich Siegel about this, and he does a cool trick where it checks the server file date to make sure there are no conflicts.

  • “Rescued Documents” — Have you ever brain farted and quit a document without saving? BBEdit can now save a list of documents closed without saving.

There are several more new features, but the thing that stands out for me is Apple silicon support. There was some justifiable concern in the community that power-tool apps like BBEdit may have a hard time making the Apple silicon transition as quickly as we’d like. BBEdit, which admittedly has plenty of experience with Apple silicon transitions, seems to have had no problem making the move with a version ready before there is an Apple silicon Mac on the market.

Face ID Macs Likely with Apple Silicon

9to5 Mac did some sleuthing in the latest Big Sur beta and found references to the TrueDepth camera system currently found on some iPhones and iPads. Specifically, there are references to “PearlCamera”, which was Apple’s internal code name for the TrueDepth camera.

It makes perfect sense that they would add Face ID to Apple silicon Macs. They have already built it into very similar chips currently shipping on iPad and iPhone, and people would love to have Face ID on their Macs, just like everything else Apple makes. Indeed, you could argue it will be more useful on a Mac since I rarely am sitting at my Mac wearing a face mask. All that said, I would be shocked if Face ID shows up any time before Apple starts shipping Apple silicon Macs.